Thanksgiving Dinner Pricing: What Agriculture Experts Say About the Costs This Year

As Thanksgiving approaches, families across the country are gearing up for one of the biggest feasts of the year. However, with rising food prices and supply chain disruptions making headlines, many are wondering: How much will Thanksgiving dinner cost this year?

According to agriculture experts, several factors—ranging from crop yields and labor shortages to transportation costs and global supply chain challenges—will affect the price of your turkey, mashed potatoes, and pumpkin pie. Let’s break down what you can expect when you head to the grocery store for your holiday meal and explore why costs are higher than in previous years.

Turkey Prices: The Big Bird

The centerpiece of most Thanksgiving tables, the turkey, has seen a steady rise in prices over the past few years. In 2024, turkey prices are expected to remain elevated, largely due to inflationary pressures on feed costs, labor, and transportation. According to USDA data, the average price for a whole frozen turkey is forecasted to be around $1.60 per pound, up from $1.50 per pound last year.

A combination of factors is contributing to this increase:

1. Feed Costs: Turkey farmers, like other livestock producers, face higher costs for feed, which is largely influenced by global grain prices. Ongoing challenges in Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain producers, continue to disrupt global supplies, driving up prices for poultry feed.
2. Labor Shortages: The agricultural industry, including turkey processing plants, has been grappling with a labor shortage, which impacts production efficiency and raises costs for farmers. This shortage was particularly pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic and continues to have ripple effects.
3. Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Even as the immediate effects of the pandemic have waned, the global supply chain is still adjusting, which can lead to increased transportation costs for getting turkeys from farms to grocery stores.

While turkey prices may be higher, experts also note that more affordable options, such as frozen turkeys or smaller birds, may help balance out costs for budget-conscious shoppers.

Side Dishes: Prices on the Rise

Thanksgiving dinner isn’t just about the turkey—sides like mashed potatoes, stuffing, green beans, and cranberry sauce are staples, too. According to experts, many of these ingredients are also experiencing price increases this year.

• Potatoes: Prices for potatoes have seen a slight increase in 2024. A combination of weather issues in key growing regions and increased demand for potatoes both in the U.S. and globally is contributing to higher prices. Expect to pay around $0.90 per pound for russet potatoes, up from about $0.85 last year.
• Cranberries: The price of cranberries has also risen, partly due to weather-related challenges affecting harvests in key growing states like Wisconsin and Massachusetts. The cost for fresh cranberries may hover around $3.50 per pound, which is a notable increase from the previous year.
• Sweet Corn, Green Beans, and Other Vegetables: Vegetable prices tend to fluctuate seasonally, but this year, many of them are impacted by inflation and increased fuel costs. Experts predict that vegetables like green beans and carrots will cost roughly 5-10% more compared to last year.

Pumpkin Pie and Desserts: Baking Costs Add Up

For many households, no Thanksgiving dinner is complete without pumpkin pie. However, as agriculture experts point out, the ingredients for this classic dessert have seen price hikes.

• Pumpkins: A poor pumpkin harvest in some regions, due to drought and other adverse weather conditions, has led to higher prices for pumpkins. This has resulted in a rise in the price of canned pumpkin, a key ingredient in pies, which is expected to be around $3.50 per can (15 oz).
• Butter and Flour: The cost of baking ingredients like butter, flour, and sugar have remained elevated as well. Butter prices, in particular, have been on the rise due to dairy industry pressures and inflation. Flour prices are up due to higher wheat costs and supply chain difficulties.

In all, experts predict that desserts—especially homemade pies—will likely cost around 10-15% more this year compared to 2023.

The Bigger Picture: Why Are Food Prices Up?

Agriculture experts stress that while Thanksgiving-specific items are certainly more expensive, the overall price increase for food is part of a larger trend seen throughout the year. Inflation, which has been running at historically high levels for the past couple of years, continues to affect consumer goods, especially food.

• Fuel and Transportation: Transportation costs for getting food from farms to stores remain a significant factor driving up prices. Higher fuel prices, in part due to global economic conditions and the war in Ukraine, continue to impact the cost of moving goods.
• Labor Issues: Labor shortages across the food industry—affecting everything from farm workers to truck drivers to grocery store employees—continue to contribute to price hikes, as fewer workers means higher wages and fewer goods being produced or delivered.
• Weather and Climate Change: Extreme weather events, from droughts in the West to hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, have wreaked havoc on crop yields. Experts predict that the effects of climate change will continue to contribute to volatility in food prices, making things like fresh vegetables and certain grains more expensive.

How to Save on Your Thanksgiving Feast

If the rising costs of Thanksgiving dinner are making you nervous about your budget, don’t worry—there are ways to save without skimping on the feast:

• Shop Early: Buying your turkey and other non-perishable ingredients well in advance can help you avoid last-minute price hikes. Many grocery stores also offer discounts or promotions on holiday staples as the big day approaches.
• Consider Smaller Portions: While a whole turkey might be traditional, a smaller bird or even turkey breast can still provide plenty of meat without the added cost of a larger bird. If you’re cooking for a small group, this can be a budget-friendly option.
• Go Frozen: Fresh ingredients are often pricier than their frozen counterparts. A frozen turkey or frozen vegetables may offer significant savings compared to fresh items.
• Bulk Purchasing: Buying side-dish ingredients like potatoes, flour, and sugar in bulk can often reduce the per-pound cost. Plus, these items can be used in future meals, helping you make the most of your investment.
• DIY Desserts: Baking your own pies and treats from scratch, instead of buying pre-made ones, can be a more economical choice. Plus, you can control the portion sizes and ingredients.

Conclusion

Thanksgiving dinner may cost a bit more this year, but it’s still possible to have a festive and memorable meal without breaking the bank. By understanding the factors behind price increases and making strategic choices, families can manage their grocery budgets while still enjoying the rich traditions of the holiday. Whether you’re serving up a turkey with all the trimmings or a more modest feast, the spirit of Thanksgiving remains the same: celebrating the bounty of the harvest and spending time with loved ones.

Happy Thanksgiving!